UCAS reveals drop in demand

UK sees 12% decline in those applying to university with the North East seeing one of the largest regional falls in applicants

written in conjunction with David Hiscocks

Over 95% of students that pass through the Armstrong arches are satisfied with their curent degrees Photography: Sam Tyson

Recent statistics released by UCAS have shown that applications for university have dropped by 9% in the year before the tuition fee rise. This amounts to a drop in over 7,000 students in comparison to the same time last year

The number of UK students applying has dropped by 12%, despite a survey by the BBC amongst A-Level students finding that only one in ten were put off by the rise in fees. Applications amongst those over the age of 25 have dropped by over a fifth; however, the amount of overseas applications has seen a surprising increase.

In the North East, specifically, 14% fewer young people have applied via UCAS, one of the biggest regional declines in the country. Only East Midlands, Yorkshire and Humberside saw a larger drop in applications.

Newcastle North MP Catherine McKinnell expressed her concern at the results: “[The results] backs up my initial fears that the Government’s new fees regime would put off a significant number of people from the region considering higher education.

“Even more worrying is the fact that this fall in applications comes at a time of high unemployment in the North East when you expect more young people to want to go to university”.

The figures are based on those applying for Medicine, Dentistry and veterinary sciences, alongside Oxbridge applications and those who have already handed in applications.

Politicians have stressed that the figures published by UCAS are an early indication of the impact that fees will have on the numbers vying for positions before the January deadline.

There have been widespread concerns within England and Wales that there would be a fall in University applicants since the current Government lifted the maximum charge for University tuition fees. Many Universities intend to charge the maximum allowable, £9000, when this change is introduced in 2012.

A BBC ‘Inside Out’ poll suggested that two thirds of A-level students would consider an apprenticeship instead. Moreover, UCAS figures show that the hardest-hit demographic are mature students in their forties, where there is a reported 28% drop in applications. However, UCAS has warned that these figures may be misleading as they are preliminary, as for most courses, the deadline for applications is January. Universities, such as City University London and Brunel, are reporting a drop in applications, but others such as the London School of Economics have shown an increase .

In addition, it may be a mistake to link the decline in applications to the increase in fees. The 12% decrease in applications to university also applies to Scotland where, there has been no fee increase. Indeed, Scottish students do not pay tuition fees if they go to a Scottish University, they pay a one-off top-up fee of a relatively insignificant amount. Therefore, the supposed drop in applications may be more to do with the overall economic climate, rather than Government policy. Unfortunately the evidence is inconclusive and contradictory.

To try and clarify whether the decline in applications is due to the tuition fee increase, a poll was conducted outside Newcastle University’s Union on October 25. Students were asked if they would still have applied to Newcastle University to do their current course if the fees were set at 2012 levels. 95% answered that they ‘probably would’ apply even if the fees were set at 2012 levels. However, most of these students did express their concerns that it would be financially difficult. The remaining 5% either said they wouldn’t bother to come; or they said they would have to think about it carefully. This creates the assumption that some of the students who are unsure would apply regardless after they had considered it.

These results lead to the conclusion that over 95% of current students at Newcastle University are so satisfied with their course that they would pay to do it even at 2012 levels. Although virtually every student who was polled said that they were unhappy about the rise in fees from 2012, few of them would consider this a sufficient reason to abandon the prospect of a Degree.
Evidently, it does not follow from this that all potential students who lack the experience of university to guide them think along the same lines as the students who were polled. However, the poll results indicate that there remains a tendency amongst young people towards valuing a degree, even if it were to cost £9000.

The poll suggests that the initial figures from UCAS will be proved to be too pessimistic. We can only trust that despite the increased financial difficulty of attending university due to Government policy and the depressed economy that these factors will only have a negligible impact on the final figures for university applications.